Cencora (Cencora) Predictability Rank

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What is Cencora Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cencora Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cencora Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cencora (Cencora) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Distribution » Cencora Inc (NYSE:COR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ABG:Germany C1CO34:Brazil ABC:Austria

Address

1 West First Avenue, Conshohocken, PA, USA, 19428-1800

Website

https://www.cencora.com

Cencora is one of three domestic leading pharmaceutical wholesalers. It sources and distributes branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to pharmacies (retail chains, independent, and mail order), hospital networks, and healthcare providers. It and McKesson and Cardinal Health constitute over 90% of the U.S. pharmaceutical wholesale industry. Cencora also provides commercialization services for manufacturers of pharmaceuticals and medical devices, global specialty drug logistics (World Courier), and animal health product distribution (MWI Animal Health). Cencora expanded its international presence in 2021 by purchasing Alliance Healthcare, one of the leading drug wholesalers in Europe.

Executives

Leslie E Donato	officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer	227 WASHINGTON STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Elizabeth S Campbell	officer: Executive Vice President	1 WEST FIRST AVENUE, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Steven H Collis	officer: President & CEO	1300 MORRIS DRIVE, SUITE 100, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Lazarus Krikorian	officer: Senior Vice President	1300 MORRIS DRIVE, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Silvana Battaglia	officer: Executive Vice President	227 WASHINGTON STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.	10 percent owner	108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Gina Clark	officer: Executive Vice President	1300 MORRIS DRIVE, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Werner Baumann	director	1 WEST FIRST AVENUE, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Lauren M Tyler	director	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION, 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Robert P. Mauch	officer: Executive Vice President	1300 MORRIS DRIVE, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Redonda Miller	director	303 WYMAN STREET, SUITE 300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Lorence H. Kim	director	C/O SERES HEALTH, INC., 161 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02472
Walgreens Boots Alliance Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Lon R Greenberg	director	460 NORTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
John G. Chou	officer: Executive Vice President	1300 MORRIS DRIVE, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087