Rockwell Collins (Rockwell Collins) Predictability Rank

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What is Rockwell Collins Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rockwell Collins Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rockwell Collins (Rockwell Collins) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Rockwell Collins Inc (NYSE:COL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.rockwellcollins.com

Rockwell Collins Inc develops communications and aviation electronics for commercial and military customers worldwide. It employs over 20,000 people. Competencies include communications, navigation, automated flight control, displays, simulation and training, integrated electronics, and information systems. The firm sells to governments, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers, while providing aftermarket services for many of its products. The company recently closed its acquisition of B/E Aerospace, an aircraft seat and cabin manufacturer.

Executives

John A Edwardson	director	P O BOX 66100-WHQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666
Robert Kelly Ortberg	director, officer: Chairman, Pres & CEO	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Patrick E Allen	officer: Sr. VP and CFO	400 COLLINS ROAD NE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498
David Lilley	director
Ralph E Eberhart	director	909 N. WASHINGTON STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Richard Hamermesh	director	C/O BE AEROSPACE, INC., 1400 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414
Jeffrey L Turner	director	SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC., 3801 SOUTH OLIVER, WICHITA KS 67210
Cheryl L Shavers	director	400 COLLINS ROAD NE, M/S 124-323, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498
Andrew J Policano	director
Robert J Perna	officer: Sr. VP, Gnrl Counsel & Secy	1151 MAPLEWOOD DRIVE, ITASCA IL 60143
John T Whates	director	1400 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414
Besong John Paul E	officer: Sr. VP, eBusiness	400 COLLINS ROAD NE M/S 124-003, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498001
Clayton M Jones	director	400 COLLINS ROAD NE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498
Donald R Beall	director	5 SAN JOAQUIN PLAZA, SUITE 320, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Toot Joseph F Jr	director	400 COLLINS ROAD NE, M/S 124-323, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498