Core & Main (Core & Main) Predictability Rank

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What is Core & Main Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Core & Main Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Core & Main (Core & Main) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Core & Main Inc (NYSE:CNM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1830 Craig Park Court, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63146

Website

https://www.coreandmain.com

Core & Main Inc is a distributor of water, sewer, storm drain, and fire protection products in the United States. It combines local expertise with a national supply chain to provide contractors and municipalities solutions for new construction and aging infrastructure.

Executives

John R Schaller	officer: President, Waterworks	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Orvin T Kimbrough	director	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Stephen O Leclair	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3100 CUMBERLAND BLVD, SUITE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30339
Laura K Schneider	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Jeffrey D Giles	officer: VP, Corporate Department	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Cd&r Fund X Waterworks B1, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O CLAYTON, DUBILIER & RICE, LLC, 375 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
John Weldon Stephens	officer: VP, Corp. Controller	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Mark R Witkowski	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Bradford A Cowles	officer: President, Fire Protection	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
James G Castellano	director	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Mark G Whittenburg	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O CORE & MAIN, INC., 1830 CRAIG PARK COURT, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Robert M Buck	director	260 JIMMY ANN DRIVE, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32114
Bhavani Amirthalingam	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Margaret Newman	director	KEURIG DR PEPPER INC., 53 SOUTH AVE., BURLINGTON MA 01803
Kathleen M Mazzarella	director	C/O GRAYBAR ELECTRIC CO., INC, 34 N. MERAMEC AVENUE, CLAYTON MO 63105