GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Candlewood Hotel Co Inc (OTCPK:CNDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Candlewood Hotel Co (Candlewood Hotel Co) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is Candlewood Hotel Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Candlewood Hotel Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Candlewood Hotel Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Candlewood Hotel Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Candlewood Hotel Co (Candlewood Hotel Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Candlewood Hotel Co Inc (OTCPK:CNDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:LHR BOM:530065 BOM:531198 BOM:523796 BOM:526373 BOM:526687 BOM:532145 BOM:531322 BOM:526761 BOM:508664 BOM:532845 BOM:542599 BOM:526755 BOM:537839 ISX:FITT BOM:526640 SGX:5HH ASX:IEQ BOM:507981 IST:ULAS
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8621 East 21st Street North, Suite 200, Wichita, KS, USA, 67206
Website
https://www.candlewoodsuites.com
Candlewood Hotel Co Inc, along with its subsidiaries operates as a franchisor, manager and on an owned and leased basis. It focuses on managing and franchising hotels, whilst its business partners own the bricks and mortar.
Executives
Elaine Healy director
Rohit M Desai other: See Footnotes 410 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 830, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jpmorgan Chase & Co other: See Footnotes 383 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Cvca, Llc other: See Footnote 2 J.P. MORGAN PARTNERS, LLC, 270 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jp Morgan Partners Bhca Lp other: See footnote 2 J.P. MORGAN PARTNERS, 270 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jpmp Master Fund Manager L P other: See footnote (2) C/O JPMORGAN PARTNERS LLC, 270 PARK AVENUE 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jpmp Capital Corp other: See footnote (2) C/O JPMORGAN PARTNERS, 1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS 40TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10020
Mony Life Insurance Co other: Please see Footnote 2 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, MAIL STOP 11-18, NEW YORK NY 10104

Candlewood Hotel Co (Candlewood Hotel Co) Headlines

No Headlines