Chimerix (Chimerix) Predictability Rank

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What is Chimerix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chimerix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chimerix (Chimerix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Chimerix Inc (NAS:CMRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CXF:Germany CXF:Germany

Address

2505 Meridian Parkway, Suite 100, Durham, NC, USA, 27713

Website

https://www.chimerix.com

Chimerix Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company based in the United States that engages in the research, development, and commercialization of medicines. Its portfolio includes treatment for acute myeloid leukemia (or AML) and antiviral treatment for smallpox. The company generates revenue through license agreements and a federal contract with the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for research and advanced development of drugs to treat various human diseases. The company operates only in one business segment namely pharmaceuticals.

Executives

Fred A Middleton	director	400 SOUTH EL CAMINO REAL STE 1200, SAN MATEO CA 94402-1708
David Jakeman	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O CHIMERIX, INC.,, 2505 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27713
Michael A. Sherman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3000 KENT AVE STE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Martha J Demski	director	7770 REGENTS ROAD SUITE 113-505, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Robert J. Meyer	director	2505 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, C/O CHIMERIX, INC, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27713
Michael T. Andriole	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ENDOCYTE, INC., 3000 KENT AVENUE, SUITE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Cantex Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	10 percent owner	1792 BELL TOWER LANE, SUITE 222, WESTON FL 33326
Victoria Vakiener	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Allen S. Melemed	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CHIMERIX, INC., 2505 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27713
Pratik S Multani	director	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
William Garrett Nichols	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CANDEL THERAPEUTICS, INC., 117 KENDRICK ST SUITE 450, NEEDHAM MA 02494
Michael Albert Alrutz	officer: Principal Executive Officer	2530 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, DURHAM NC 27713
M Michelle Berrey	officer: Chief Medical Officer	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08450
Ernest Mario	director	20 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, P.O. BOX 445, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Ed Greissing	director	2505 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, C/O CHIMERIX, INC, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27713