What is Clovis Oncology Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Clovis Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Clovis Oncology (Clovis Oncology) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5500 Flatiron Parkway, Suite 100, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301
Clovis Oncology Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on acquiring, developing, and commercializing anti-cancer agents in the United States, the EU, and additional international markets. The firm targets its development programs for the treatment of specific subsets of cancer populations. Its product candidate includes Rucaparib. Rucaparib is an oral small molecule inhibitor of poly ADP-ribose polymerase, is marketed in the United States for two indications specific to the recurrent epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer. The company has two segments U.S and ex-U.S based on geograhic areas, with majority of its revenue coming from U.S.
Executives
| Thomas C. Harding |
officer: See Remarks |
5500 FLATIRON PARKWAY, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Gillian C Ivers-read |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O PHARMION CORPORATION, 2525 28TH STREET, BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Lindsey Rolfe |
officer: See remarks |
C/O CLOVIS ONCOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Daniel W Muehl |
officer: See remarks |
5 BILLERICA PARK, 101 BILLERICA AVE, NORTH BILLERCA MA 01862 |
| Paul Edward Gross |
officer: See Remarks |
5500 FLATIRON PARKWAY, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Ronit Simantov |
director |
1988 CHAPEL STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06515 |
| James C Blair |
director |
5880 PACIFIC CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121-4204 |
| Patrick J Mahaffy |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O CLOVIS ONCOLOGY, INC., 5500 FLATIRON PARKWAY, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Thorlef Spickschen |
director |
TRAUBENWEG 25, 64342 SEEHEIN-JUGENHEIM 2M 00000 |
| Richard A. Fair |
director |
C/O BELLICUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2130 W. HOLCOMBE BLVD., STE. 800, HOUSTON TX 77030 |
| Robert Azelby |
director |
307 WESTLAKE AVE. NORTH, STE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109 |
| Hooks Corwin Dale |
officer: See remarks |
C/O CLOVIS ONCOLOGY, INC., 5500 FLATIRON PARKWAY, BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Paul H Klingenstein |
director |
428 UNIVERSITY AVE, C/O ACCEL PARTNERS, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Ginger L Graham |
director |
AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 885 ARAPAHOE AVENUE, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Brian G Atwood |
director |
ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
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