CION Invt (CION Invt) Predictability Rank

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What is CION Invt Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CION Invt Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CION Invt (CION Invt) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » CION Invt Corp (NYSE:CION) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

D21:Germany

Address

100 Park Avenue, 25th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.cioninvestments.com

CION Invt Corp is an externally managed, non-diversified, closed-end management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company. The Company's portfolio is comprised of investments in senior secured debt, including first lien loans, second lien loans and unitranche loans, and, to a lesser extent, collateralized securities, structured products and other similar securities, unsecured debt, and equity, of private and thinly-traded U.S. middle-market companies.

Executives

Peter I. Finlay	director	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP, 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Michael A Reisner	director, officer: Co-Chairman & Co-CEO	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Gregg A. Bresner	officer: President & CIO	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP, 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Catherine Choi	director	3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Aron I Schwartz	director	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Robert A Breakstone	director	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Eric A. Pinero	officer: Chief Legal Officer	3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Keith S Franz	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Mark Gatto	director, officer: Co-Chairman & Co-CEO	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Stephen Roman	officer: CCO & Secretary	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP., 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Edward J. Estrada	director	3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Joseph D Glatt	director	C/O APOLLO INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Earl Hedin	director	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP, 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
David J Verlizzo	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O CION INVESTMENT CORP, 3 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10016
Apollo Principal Holdings Iii Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST CORPORATE SERVICES, (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 190 ELGIN STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9005