Cipher Mining (Cipher Mining) Predictability Rank

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What is Cipher Mining Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cipher Mining Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cipher Mining Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cipher Mining (Cipher Mining) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Cipher Mining Inc (NAS:CIFR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3A9:Germany

Address

1 Vanderbilt Avenue, Floor 54, Suite C, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.ciphermining.com

Cipher Mining Inc ia an emerging technology company that operates in the Bitcoin mining ecosystem in the United States. The company is developing a cryptocurrency mining business, specializing in Bitcoin.

Executives

Bitfury Top Holdco B.v.	10 percent owner	STRAWINSKYLAAN 3051, AMSTERDAM, NOORD-HOLLAND P7 1077 ZX
Patrick Arthur Kelly	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
William Iwaschuk	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Cary M Grossman	director
Robert Flatley	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Tyler Page	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, RYE NY 10017
Dykes Robert R B	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
James E Newsome	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Bitfury Group Ltd	10 percent owner	STRAWINSKYLAAN 3051, AMSTERDAM, NOORD-HOLLAND P7 1077 ZX
Bitfury Holding B.v.	10 percent owner	STRAWINSKYLAAN 3051, AMSTERDAM, NOORD-HOLLAND P7 1077 ZX
V3 Holding Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 222 PURCHASE STREET, SUITE #290, RYE NY 10580
Valerijis Vavilovs	10 percent owner	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 222 PURCHASE STREET, SUITE #290, RYE NY 10580
Holly Morrow Evans	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Caitlin Long	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wesley Hastie Williams	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017