What is ChargePoint Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ChargePoint Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ChargePoint Holdings (ChargePoint Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
240 East Hacienda Avenue, Campbell, CA, USA, 95008
ChargePoint designs, develops, and markets networked electric vehicle charging system infrastructure and cloud-based services that enable consumers to locate, reserve, and authenticate EV charging. The company's hardware product lineup includes solutions across home, commercial, and fast-charging applications. ChargePoint derives the majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Michael D Hughes |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O CHARGEPOINT INC, 254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Richard Wilmer |
officer: See Remarks |
ARUBA NETWORKS, INC., 1322 CROSSMAN AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Rebecca Chavez |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Henrik Gerdes |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1900 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Rex S Jackson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SYMYX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 3100 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051 |
| Q-grg Vii (cp) Investment Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner, other: See Remarks |
800 CAPITOL STREET, STE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002-2932 |
| Ekta Singh-bushell |
director |
9197 S. PEORIA ST., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Michael Linse |
director, 10 percent owner |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Bruce R Chizen |
director |
C/O ADOBE SYSTEMS INC, 345 PARK AVENUE P O BOX 2704, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704 |
| Pasquale Romano |
director, officer: See Remarks |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| William J Loewenthal |
officer: Senior Vice President, Product |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Eric Sidle |
officer: See Remarks |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Lawrence Lee |
officer: See Remarks |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Jansen Colleen |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
254 E. HACIENDA AVENUE, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Linse Capital Llc |
10 percent owner |
53 CALLE PALMERAS, SUITE 601, SAN JUAN PR 00901 |
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