CEVA (CEVA) Predictability Rank

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What is CEVA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CEVA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CEVA (CEVA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » CEVA Inc (NAS:CEVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PVJA:Germany

Address

15245 Shady Grove Road, Suite 400, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850

Website

https://www.ceva-dsp.com

CEVA Inc is a licensor of signal-processing intellectual property. Through partnerships with semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers globally, the company helps produce devices for a range of end markets. OEMs and semiconductor companies choose to sell products with CEVA equipment to wireless, consumer, automotive, and Internet of Things companies. Revenue is derived primarily from licensing fees and related revenue, and royalties generated from the shipments of products utilizing its intellectual properties. CEVA also engages in the training and sale of development systems.

Executives

Amir Panush	officer: Chief Executive Officer	15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Gweltaz Toquet	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O CEVA, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Louis Silver	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Michael Boukaya	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1174 CASTRO STREET, SUITE 210, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Issachar Ohana	officer: EVP Worldwide Sales	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gideon Wertheizer	officer: EVP and GM DSP Cores	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Yaniv Arieli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Zvi Limon	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Sven Christer Nilsson	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Maria Marced	director	C/O CEVA, INC.,1174 CASTRO STREET, SUITE 210, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Eliyahu Ayalon	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Jaclyn Liu	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Peter Mcmanamon	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Bruce Mann	director	C/O CEVA, INC., 1943 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Bernadette Andrietti	director	C/O CEVA, INC.,1174 CASTRO STREET, SUITE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040