Cadiz (CDZI) Predictability Rank

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What is Cadiz Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cadiz Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cadiz Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cadiz (CDZI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Cadiz Inc (NAS:CDZI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2ZC:Germany

Address

550 South Hope Street, Suite 2850, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90071

Website

https://www.cadizinc.com

Cadiz Inc is a land and water resource development company in California. Its primary business is to acquire and develop land with water resources for various uses, including groundwater supply, groundwater storage, and agriculture. The company focuses on the development of the Cadiz Valley Water Conservation, Recovery and Storage Project which will capture and conserve native groundwater currently being lost to evaporation from the aquifer system beneath the property of Cadiz and Fenner valleys of eastern San Bernardino County, and deliver it to water providers throughout Southern California. The company operates in two segment- Land and Water Resources and ATEC Water Systems LLC.

Executives

Susan P Kennedy	director	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Winston H Hickox	director	C/O THOMAS PROPERTIES GROUP, INC., 515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, 6TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Maria S. Dreyfus	director	125 WEST 55TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Scott S Slater	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Heerema International Group Services Sa	10 percent owner	ROUTE DE FLORISSANT 81, GENEVE V8 1206
Kenneth T Lombard	director	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Richard Garcia Polanco	director	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Stephen E Courter	director	C/O CADIZ INC., 550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, 2850, LOS ANGELES X1 90071
Webb De Macias Carolyn D	director	304 NORTH ALMANSOR STREET, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Maria Echaveste	director	1511 ARCH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94708
Odey Asset Management Llp	10 percent owner	18 UPPER BROOK STREET, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM X0 W1K 7PU
Odey Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	18 UPPER BROOK STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 7PU
Odey Robin Crispin William	10 percent owner	18 UPPER BROOK STREET, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM X0 W1K 7PU
Odey Asset Management Group Ltd	10 percent owner	18 UPPER BROOK STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 7PU
Keith Brackpool	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071