Chase (CCF) Predictability Rank

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What is Chase Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chase Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chase (CCF) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Chase Corp (AMEX:CCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

375 University Avenue, Westwood, MA, USA, 02090

Website

https://www.chasecorp.com

Chase Corp is a specialty chemical company. It operates through the following segments: Adhesives, Sealants and Additives, Industrial Tapes and Corrosion Protection and Waterproofing. The firm generates majority revenue from the Industrial Tapes segment. Its Industrial Tapes segment features legacy wire and cable materials, specialty tapes, and other laminated and coated products. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from North America and also has a presence in Asia; Europe, and Other Countries.

Executives

Adam Chase	officer: COO/Vice President	104 ALBION ROAD, WELLESLEY MA 02481
Thomas Jr Wroe	director
Ellen Rubin	director	11 CLEMENTS ROAD, NEWTON MA 02458
Mary Claire Chase	director	115 SUMNER STREET, NEWTON MA 02459
Derby John H. Iii	director	1029 OCEAN BLVD., RYE NH 03870
Jeffery D Haigh	officer: Corporate Secretary	2 SUMMER STREET, NORWOOD MA 02062
Michael J. Bourque	officer: Treasurer & CFO	ANALOGIC CORPORATION, 8 CENTENNIAL DRIVE, PEABODY MA 01960
Lewis P Gack	director	5 LIVINGTON CIRCLE, ANDOVER MA 01810
Peter R Chase	officer: President, CEO	305 GRANGE PARK, BRIDGEWATER MA 02324
Joan Wallace-benjamin	director	175 SANDY VALLEY ROAD, DEDHAM MA 02026
Christian John Talma	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5 ALHAMBRA RD., WELLESLEY MA 02481
Chad A. Mcdaniel	director	C/O LYDALL, INC., 1 COLONIAL ROAD, MANCHESTER CT 06042
Thomas D. Debyle	director	STANDEX INT'L, 6 MANOR PARKWAY, SALEM NH 03079
Kenneth James Feroldi	officer: CFO/Treasurer	67 KIMBERLEY DRIVE, WAKEFIELD RI 02878
Everett Jr Chadwick	director	20 SOUTH DRIVE, BRIDGEWATER MA 02324