Cava Group (Cava Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Cava Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cava Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cava Group (Cava Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Cava Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14 Ridge Square NW, Suite 500,, Washington, DC, USA, 20016

Website

https://www.cava.com

Cava Group Inc owns and operates a chain of restaurants. It is the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand, bringing together healthful food and bold, satisfying flavors at scale. The company's operations are conducted as two reportable segments: CAVA and Zoes Kitchen.

Executives

Philippe Amouyal	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Jennifer Somers	officer: Chief Operations Officer	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Kenneth Robert Bertram	officer: CLO & Secretary	3404 CHOCO CHASE, MECHNICSBURG NY 17055
Tricia K. Tolivar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Todd Klein	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Theodoros Xenohristos	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Swan Hospitality 4 Llc	10 percent owner	108 LOUDOUN STREET SW, LEESBURG VA 20175
Act Iii Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	23 PRESCOTT STREET, BROOKLINE MA 02446
Adam David Phillips	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Benjamin Felt	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
David Bosserman	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Brett Schulman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Cava Act Iii Trust, Llc	10 percent owner	23 PRESCOTT STREET, BROOKLINE MA 02446
Cava Act Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	23 PRESCOTT STREET, BROOKLINE MA 02446
Todd D Klein	director	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE, N.W., 10TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036