CARISMA Therapeutics (CARISMA Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is CARISMA Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CARISMA Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CARISMA Therapeutics (CARISMA Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CARISMA Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CARM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

W2J:Germany

Address

245 First Street, Suite 1800, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.carismatx.com

CARISMA Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage cell therapy company focused on utilizing Carisma's proprietary macrophage and monocyte cell engineering platform to develop transformative immunotherapies to treat cancer and other serious diseases. The company has created a comprehensive cell therapy platform to enable the therapeutic use of engineered macrophages and monocytes, which belong to a subgroup of white blood cells called myeloid cells.

Executives

Modernatx, Inc.	10 percent owner	200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Sanford S Zweifach	director	21720 23RD DRIVE SE, SUITE 150, BOTHELL WA 98021
Steven Kelly	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O INNOVIVE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 555 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Briggs Morrison	director	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02451
Richard Steven Morris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	397 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, EXTON PA 19341
Chidozie Ugwumba	director	158 FILMORE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Michael Klichinsky	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CARISMA THERAPEUTICS INC., 3675 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Michael Torok	director	C/O CARISMA THERAPEUTICS INC., 3675 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Regina Hodits	director	C/O CARISMA THERAPEUTICS INC., 3675 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Bjorn Odlander	director	C/O ODLANDER, FREDRIKSON & CO. AB, STRANDVAGEN 5B, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-114 51
Minori Rosales	officer: Chief Development Officer	245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jewett Michael A. S.	director	C/O SESEN BIO, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Peter Honig	director	3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Patricia M. Drake	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Elly Ryu	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142