CrossAmerica Partners LP (CrossAmerica Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is CrossAmerica Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CrossAmerica Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CrossAmerica Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CrossAmerica Partners LP (CrossAmerica Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE:CAPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

645 Hamilton Street, Suite 400, Allentown, PA, USA, 18101

Website

https://www.crossamericapartners.com

CrossAmerica Partners LP is a US-based limited partnership which is engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel and the ownership and leasing of real estate used in the retail distribution of motor fuel. The company operates through two business segments namely Wholesale and Retail. The Wholesale segment is a key revenue driver, includes the wholesale distribution of motor fuel to lessee dealers, independent dealers, commission agents, DMS, Circle K and through company operated retail sites. The Retail segment includes the sale of convenience merchandise items, the retail sale of motor fuel at company-operated retail sites and the retail sale of motor fuel at retail sites operated by commission agents.

Executives

Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director, 10 percent owner	702 WEST HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 203, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Robert Brecker	officer: Executive Vice Pres Operations	107 SACRAMENTO DRIVE, QUAKERTOWN PA 18951
Stephen J Lattig	officer: Senior Vice President Retail	6109 COTTONWOOD LANE, BLACKSHEAR GA 31516
Thomas E Kelso	director	14921 OLD YORK ROAD, PHOENIX MD 21131
Matthew Evan Naylor	officer: Senior Vice President Retail	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Mickey Kim	director	500 S. COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, COLUMBUS IN 47201
2008 Irrevocable Agreement Of Trust Of John B Reilly Jr	10 percent owner	1577 SAUCON VALLEY ROAD, BETHLEHEM PA 18105
Dunne Manning Cap Holdings I Llc	10 percent owner	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Reilly John B. Iii	director	ONE SAUCON VIEW DRIVE, BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Eric M Javidi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Maura Topper	director	1762 ARDEN LANE, BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Keenan D Lynch	director, officer: Corporate Secretary	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Patricia Dunne Topper Trust	10 percent owner	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Dm Partners Management Co. Llc	10 percent owner	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Dunne Manning Partners Llc	10 percent owner	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101