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Cameron International (Cameron International) Predictability Rank


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What is Cameron International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Cameron International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cameron International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cameron International (Cameron International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Cameron International Corp, a Delaware corporation, was incorporated on November 10, 1994. The Company is a provider of flow equipment products, systems and services to oil, gas and process industries. Cooper Cameron is also a manufacturer of centrifugal air compressors, integral and separable gas compressors and turbochargers. The Company's operations are organized into three business segments: Drilling & Production Systems 'DPS', Valves & Measurement 'V&M' and Compression Systems 'CS'. DPS is a provider of systems and equipment used to control pressures, direct flows of oil and gas wells and separate oil and gas from impurities. DPS's products include surface and subsea production systems, blowout preventers, drilling and production control systems, oil and gas separation equipment, gas conditioning units, membrane separation systems, water processing systems, block valves, gate valves, actuators, chokes, wellheads, drilling riser and aftermarket parts and services. DPS's customers include oil and gas majors, national oil companies, independent producers, engineering and construction companies, drilling contractors, rental companies and geothermal energy producers. V&M is a provider of valves and also supplies measurement systems mainly used to control, direct and measure the flow of oil and gas as it moved from individual wellheads through flow lines, gathering lines and transmission systems to refineries, petrochemical plants and industrial centers for processing. V&M's products include gate valves, ball valves, butterfly valves, Orbit(r) valves, double block & bleed valves, plug valves, globe valves, check valves, actuators, chokes and aftermarket parts and services. Measurement products include totalizers, turbine meters, flow computers, chart recorders, ultrasonic flow meters and sampling systems. V&M's main customers include oil and gas majors, independent producers, engineering and construction companies, pipeline operators, drilling contractors and chemical, petrochemical and refining companies. CS is a provider of compression equipment and aftermarket parts and services for the oil, gas and process industries. Integrally geared centrifugal compressors are used by customers around the world in a variety of industries, including air separation, petrochemical and chemical. CS's products include integral engine-compressors, separable compressors, turbochargers, integrally geared centrifugal compressors, compressor systems and controls. Cameron has manufacturing facilities worldwide that conduct a broad variety of processes, including machining, fabrication, assembly and testing, using a variety of forged and cast alloyed steels and stainless steel as the main raw materials. Cameron competes in all areas of its operations with a number of other companies, some of which have financial and other resources comparable to or greater than those of Cameron. Cameron considers the following trade names to be material to its business
Executives
Peter J Fluor director 20 N. BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
James T Hackett director C/O FLUOR CORPORATION, 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD, IRVING TX 75039
Douglas L Foshee director 1001 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jack B Moore director 5 GREENWAY PLAZA, STE 110, HOUSTON TX 77046
Timothy J Probert director 12300 PARK CREST DR, STAFFORD TX 77477
Robert Scott Rowe officer: Vice President 1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Paulett Eberhart director C/O LPL FINANCIAL, 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 32121
Charles M Sledge officer: Sr Vice Pres & CFO 1611 SCENIC MOUNTAIN COURT, KINGWOOD TX 77345
Bruce W Wilkinson director 1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, STE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Jon Erik Reinhardsen director 1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Dennis S Baldwin officer: VP Controller and CAO 1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Brent J Smolik director 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070
Gary M. Halverson officer: Sr Vice President 1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
H. Keith Jennings officer: Vice President & Treasurer 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Owen Serjeant officer: Vice President 24955 INTERSTATE 45 NORTH, THE WOODLANDS X1 77380

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