Byline Bancorp (Byline Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Byline Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Byline Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Byline Bancorp (Byline Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Byline Bancorp Inc (NYSE:BY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

180 North LaSalle Street, Suite 300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601

Website

https://www.bylinebancorp.com

Byline Bancorp Inc is the holding company for Byline Bank, a full-service commercial bank serving small-and-medium-sized businesses, financial sponsors, and consumers. The company offers a broad range of banking products and services to small and medium sized businesses, commercial real estate and online account opening to consumer and business. Also provide trust and wealth management services to our customers. In addition to traditional commercial banking business, company provide small ticket equipment leasing solutions through Byline Financial Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Byline Bank.

Executives

Steven P. Kent	director	C/O BYLINE BANCORP, INC., 180 N. LASALLE ST., STE. 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
William G Kistner	director	C/O BYLINE BANCORP, INC., 180 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Herseth Mary Jo S.	director	C/O BYLINE BANCORP, INC., 180 N. LASALLE ST., STE. 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Mbg Investors I, L.p.	10 percent owner	180 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Del Valle Perochena Antonio	director, 10 percent owner	180 NORTH LA SALLE STREET, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Carlos Ruiz Sacristan	director	PO BOX 1, MEXICO CITY O5 999999999
Pamela C Stewart	director	180 N LASALLE ST, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Phillip R. Cabrera	director	180 NORTH LA SALLE STREET, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Olano Maria Sherylle A	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	180 N LASALLE ST, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Brogan Ptacin	officer: Managing Director	501 WEST NORTH AVENUE, MELROSE PARK IL 60160
Roberto R Herencia	director	P.O. BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Michelle Lynn Johnson	officer: Chief Risk Officer	C/O BYLINE BANCORP, INC., 180 N. LASALLE ST., SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Major Hart Angela E	officer: EVP, Head of Wealth Management	180 N. LASALLE ST., SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Velez Margarita Hugues	director	180 N, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
John Barkidjija	officer: Head of Commercial Banking	3959 N. LINCOLN AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60613