Bluegreen Vacations (Bluegreen Vacations) Predictability Rank

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What is Bluegreen Vacations Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bluegreen Vacations Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bluegreen Vacations (Bluegreen Vacations) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Bluegreen Vacations Corp (NYSE:BXG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4960 Conference Way North, Suite 100, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431

Website

https://www.bluegreenvacations.com

Bluegreen Vacations Corp is a US-based vacation ownership company that markets and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) and manages resorts in leisure and urban destinations. It sells VOIs through fee-for-service agreements with third-party developers and provides consumer financing and title services through a wholly-owned subsidiary. The company also provides management services to the Bluegreen Vacation Club and to a majority of the HOAs (home owners' associations) of the resorts within the Bluegreen vacation Club as well as manages the club reservation services, provides services to owners, and performs billing and collections services to the Bluegreen Vacation Club and certain HOAs.

Executives

Dusty Tonkin	officer: EVP, Chief Sales Officer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Shawn B Pearson	officer: Former Dir, President, and CEO	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH SUITE 100 BOCA RATON FL 33431
Raymond Scott Lopez	officer: EVP, CFO, and Treasurer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Anthony M Puleo	officer: Former EVP, CFO, and Treasurer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH BOCA RATON FL 33431
Susan Saturday	officer: EVP, Chief Admin Officer	5116 PINEVIEW CIRCLE, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445
Famous P Rhodes	officer: Former EVP and CMO	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
David L Pontius	other: Former EVP and COO	4960 CONFERENCE WAY, NORTH SUITE 100 BOCA RATON FL 33431
De La Osa Jorge	officer: See Remarks	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Justin Taylor	officer: EVP and Chief HR Officer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100 BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ahmad M Wardak	officer: See Remarks	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Chanse W Rivera	officer: EVP and CIO	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Woodbridge Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	2100 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Bbx Capital Corp	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 39000 FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33303
John E Abdo	director, 10 percent owner	P. O. BOX 39000, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33303
Alan B Levan	director, 10 percent owner	P. O. BOX 39000, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33303