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Bowman Consulting Group (Bowman Consulting Group) Predictability Rank


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What is Bowman Consulting Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bowman Consulting Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bowman Consulting Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bowman Consulting Group (Bowman Consulting Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Bowman Consulting Group Ltd (NAS:BWMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BBCP TPC LMB MTRX SLND GLDD WLDN AGX BLNK ORN XPAR:DG NSE:LT SHSE:601668 PWR SHSE:601390 J TSX:WSP HKSE:01800 SHSE:601186 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12355 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite 520, Reston, VA, USA, 20191
Website
https://www.bowman.com
Bowman Consulting Group Ltd is a multi-faceted consulting firm offering a broad range of real estate, energy, infrastructure, and environmental management solutions to both public and private clients across the country. From large commercial developments, to master planned communities, to local transportation projects, Bowman delivers outstanding project results, builds long-lasting relationships and leverages the growth of the organization to serve the constantly changing needs of clients.
Executives
Gary Bowman director, 10 percent owner 12355 SUNRISE VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 520, RESTON VA 20191
Bruce J Labovitz officer: Chief Financial Officer 11465 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, SUITE 510, RESTON VA 20910
Michael Bruen director, officer: Chief Operating Officer 12355 SUNRISE VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 520, RESTON VA 20191
Robert Alan Hickey officer: Chief Legal Officer 12355 SUNRISE VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 520, RESTON VA 20191
Patricia Mulroy director C/O WYNN RESORTS LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Stephen A Riddick director C/O TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC., 6100 MERRIWEATHER DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Raymond Jr. Vicks director C/O ACCESS GOHEALTH ONDEMAND, INC., 5555 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30342
James P Laurito director C/O ENERGY EAST CORPORATION, PO BOX 3287, ITHACA NY 14852-3287
Daniel Lefaivre director 12355 SUNRISE VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 520, RESTON VA 20131
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc. 10 percent owner 16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6