Bioventus (Bioventus) Predictability Rank

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What is Bioventus Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bioventus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bioventus (Bioventus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Bioventus Inc (NAS:BVS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4721 Emperor Boulevard, Suite 100, Durham, NC, USA, 27703

Website

https://www.bioventus.com

Bioventus Inc is a medical technology company. The company is engaged in developing and commercializing clinically differentiated treatments that engage and enhance the body's natural healing process. It offers a diverse portfolio of products to serve physicians spanning the orthopedic continuum, including sports medicine, total joint reconstruction, hand and upper extremities, foot and ankle, podiatric surgery, trauma, spine and neurosurgery. Its portfolio of products is grouped into three verticals based on clinical use: Pain Treatments, Surgical Solutions, and Restorative Therapies. Geographical presence is in U.S and International markets.

Executives

Bihl Anthony P Iii	director, officer: Interim CEO	807 SMITH RIDGE ROAD, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
John A. Bartholdson	director, 10 percent owner	C/O STONINGTON PARTNERS, INC., 540 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Juniper Investment Company, Llc	10 percent owner	555 MADISON AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-3315
Katrina J Church	officer: SVP & Chief Compliance Officer	3290 WEST BAYSHORE ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Alexis P Michas	10 percent owner	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Juniper Targeted Opportunities, Lp	10 percent owner	555 MADISON AVENUE, 24TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Juniper Targeted Opportunity Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	555 MADISON AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
William A Hawkins	director	MEDTRONIC INC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Mark Leonard Singleton	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27703
Anthony D'adamio	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
Kenneth Michael Reali	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5213 ATHERTON BRIDGE ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27613
John Nosenzo	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
Alessandra Pavesio	officer: SVP & Chief Science Officer	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
Gregory O. Anglum	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27703
Michelle Mcmurry-heath	director	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27703