Bluegreen Vacations Holding (Bluegreen Vacations Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Bluegreen Vacations Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bluegreen Vacations Holding (Bluegreen Vacations Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp (NYSE:BVH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BCB1:Germany

Address

4960 Conference Way North, Suite 100, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431

Website

https://www.bvhcorp.com

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp is a vacation ownership company that markets and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) & manages resorts in popular leisure and urban destinations. The firm operates in two segments: Sales of VOIs and financing & Resort Operations and Club Management. The majority is from the Sales of VOIs and financing segment. The Sales of VOIs and Financing segment includes the Company's marketing and sales activities related to the VOIs that are owned by the Company, VOIs acquired under just-in-time and secondary market inventory arrangements, or sales of VOIs through fee-for-service arrangements with third-party developers, as well as consumer financing activities in connection with sales of VOIs owned by the Company, and title services operations.

Executives

John E Abdo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board	P. O. BOX 39000, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33303
Alan B Levan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Bd/President	P. O. BOX 39000, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33303
De La Osa Jorge	officer: EVP, Chief Legal	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Dusty Tonkin	officer: EVP, Chief Sales Officer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Mark Nerenhausen	director	1221 MT CURVE AVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403
Ahmad M Wardak	officer: EVP, Chief Brand Officer	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Chanse W Rivera	officer: EVP and CIO	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Arnold Sevell	director	4960 CONFERENCE WAY N, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Allmand James R Iii	director	PO BOX 267068, WESTON FL 33326
Orlando Sharpe	director	C/O SHARPE PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS, INC., 1212 S. ANDREWS AVE., STE. 203, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Lawrence A Cirillo	director	755 SATURN STREET, APT I 104, JUPITER FL 33477
Gregory Adam Haile	director	401 EAST LAS OLAS BLVD SUITE 800, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Cagnetta Andrew R. Jr.	director	401 EAST LAS OLAS BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Brett Sheppard	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	201 EAST LAS OLAS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1900, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Winningham Charlie C Ii	director	P. O. BOX 39001, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33303