Bitcoin Depot (Bitcoin Depot) Predictability Rank

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What is Bitcoin Depot Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bitcoin Depot Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bitcoin Depot Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bitcoin Depot (Bitcoin Depot) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Bitcoin Depot Inc (NAS:BTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2870 Peachtree Road No. 327, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30305

Website

https://www.bitcoindepot.com

Bitcoin Depot Inc is the fastest-growing multi-cryptocurrency ATM Network offering users the ability to buy and sell.

Executives

Christopher Scott Buchanan	director, officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	2870 PEACHTREE RD #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Brandon Taylor Mintz	director, officer: See Remarks	2870 PEACHTREE RD #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
David E Shaw	10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1, 3, and 4.	120 WEST FORTY-FIFTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D. E. Shaw & Co, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1, 3, and 4.	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D. E. Shaw & Co, L.l.c.	10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1, 3, and 4.	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Daniel Tramel Stabile	director	2870 PEACHTREE RD. #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Jacqueline Marks	director	2870 PEACHTREE RD. #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Gardner Daniel C. Jr	director	2870 PEACHTREE RD. #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Timothy Vanderham	director	2870 PEACHTREE RD. #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Bt Assets, Inc.	10 percent owner	2870 PEACHTREE RD #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Mark James Smalley	officer: CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER	2870 PEACHTREE RD #327, ATLANTA GA 30305
Gsr Ii Meteora Sponsor Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GSR II METEORA ACQUISITION CORP., 840 PARK DRIVE EAST, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Glen S Leibowitz	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	366 MADISON AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Bradley R. Strock	director	C/O ELEVATE CREDIT, INC., 4150 INTERNATIONAL PLAZA, SUITE 300, FORT WORTH TX 76109
Eve Mongiardo	director	C/O GSR II METEORA ACQUISITION CORP., 840 PARK DRIVE EAST, BOCA RATON FL 33432