Black Stone Minerals LP (Black Stone Minerals LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Black Stone Minerals LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Black Stone Minerals LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Black Stone Minerals LP (Black Stone Minerals LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Black Stone Minerals LP (NYSE:BSM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1001 Fannin Street, Suite 2020, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.blackstoneminerals.com

Black Stone Minerals LP is an oil and natural gas mineral company. It owns oil and natural gas mineral interests, which make up the majority of the asset base. Its business is actively managing an existing portfolio of mineral and royalty assets to maximize its value and expanding asset base through acquisitions of additional mineral and royalty interests.

Executives

Carter Thomas L Jr	officer: President, CEO, and Chairman	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77002
D Mark Dewalch	director	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
James Whitehead	director	1001 FANNIN ST, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77006
Luke Stevens Putman	officer: See Remarks	601 JEFFERSON, SUITE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Evan Montgomery Kiefer	officer: Interim CFO & Treasurer	1001 FANNIN ST, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Dawn Smajstrla	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	801 LOUISIANA, STE 700, HOUSTON X1 77479
Jeffrey P. Wood	officer: SVP, CFO	EAGLE ROCK ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., P.O. BOX 2968, HOUSTON TX 77252-2968
Carrie Pearson Clark	officer: SVP, Land and Legal	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1100, HOUSTON TX 77024
William N. Mathis	director	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Holbrook F Dorn	officer: See Remarks	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Brock Morris	officer: See Remarks	1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Alexander D. Stuart	director	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
William E. Randall	director	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ricky J. Haeflinger	director	C/O BLACK STONE MINERALS, L.P., 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
William G Bardel	director	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652