BrightSphere Investment Group (BrightSphere Investment Group) Predictability Rank

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What is BrightSphere Investment Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BrightSphere Investment Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BrightSphere Investment Group (BrightSphere Investment Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » BrightSphere Investment Group Inc (NYSE:BSIG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2B9:Germany

Address

200 State Street, 13th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02109

Website

https://www.bsig.com

BrightSphere Investment Group Inc is a diversified, multi-boutique asset management company. The company's diverse affiliates offer alpha-generating investment products to investors around the world. Its reportable segment includes Quant and Solutions, which comprises of versatile, tailored strategies that leverage data and technology in a computational, factor-based investment process across a range of asset classes in developed and emerging markets, including non-U.S. and small-cap equities, as well as managed volatility, ESG, multi-asset, equity alternatives, and long/short strategies.. Its affiliates offer products in the U.S, international and emerging markets equities; U.S. fixed income; and alternative investments, including timber and secondary Funds.

Executives

Richard Jonathan Hart	officer: Chief Legal Officer	200 CLARENDON STREET, 53RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Christina Wiater	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	200 CLARENDON STREET, 53RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Suren Rana	director, officer: President and CEO	245 PARK AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Paulson & Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
John Paulson	director, 10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Daniel K. Mahoney	officer: Head of Finance/PAO	C/O OLD MUTUAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Guang Yang	director, officer: President and CEO	850 THIRD AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert J Chersi	director	C/O OMAM INC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 53RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Maliz E Beams	director	C/O PORT FINANCIAL CORP, 1380 SOLDIERS FIELD RD, BRIGHTON MA 02135
Barbara Trebbi	director	C/O OMAM INC., 200 CLARENDON STREET, 53RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Reginald Love	director	C/O BRIGHTSPHERE INC., 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Andrew D Kim	director	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036