Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund (Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund (Saba Capitalome & Opportunities Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund (NYSE:BRW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

405 Lexington Avenue, 58th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10174

Website

https://www.sabacef.com

Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund t is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. It seeks to provide investors with a high level of current income, with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It invests globally in debt and equity securities of public and private companies, which includes, investing in closed-end funds, public and private debt instruments, and other securities.

Executives

Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Troy M Statczar	officer: Principle Financial Officer	3 CANAL PLAZA, PORTLAND ME 04101
Nitin Sapru	officer: Vice President	405 LEXINGTON AVE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Michael D'angelo	officer: Secretary	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Patrick J Keniston	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	FORESIDE COMPLIANCE SERVICES, LLC, THREE CANAL PLAZA, SUITE 100, PORTLAND ME 04101
Pierre Weinstein	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SABA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Christopher P Sullivan	other: Former Trustee	27 LEE TERRACE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Thomas Bumbolow	director	C/O VOYA PRIME RATE TRUST, 7337 EAST DOUBLETREE RANCH RD., STE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85258
Neal Neilinger	director	126 CLAPBOARD RIDGE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Charles I Clarvit	director	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Kieran Goodwin	director	925 PARK AVENUE 11B, NEW YORK NY 10028
Ketu Desai	director	999 RIVERVIEW DR, SUITE 201, TOTOWA NJ 07512
Karen Caldwell	director	10125 SOUTH BELL AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60643
Aditya Bindal	director	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Andrew Kellerman	director	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174