Bird Global (Bird Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Bird Global Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bird Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bird Global (Bird Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Bird Global Inc (OTCPK:BRDSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

392 North East 191st Street, No. 20388, Miami, FL, USA, 33179

Website

https://www.bird.co

Bird Global Inc is a micro-mobility company engaged in delivering electric transportation solutions for short distances. It partners with cities to bring lightweight, electric vehicles to residents and visitors to replace car trips by providing an alternative sustainable transportation option. The company operates in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Other countries.

Executives

John Ivan Bitove	director	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Hoselito Joseph Prodan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Michael Washinushi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Stewart Lyons	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Travis Vanderzanden	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Shane Torchiana	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1425 BRICKELL AVE, UNIT 58E, MIAMI FL 33131
Jeffrey Vance	officer: Corporate Controller	IMAX CORPORATION, 2525 SPEAKMAN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5K 1B1
Philip Keebler Ryan	director	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Philip Evershed	director	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 N 191ST STREET #20388 FL 33179
Antonio Occhionero	director	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 406 BROADWAY, SUITE 369, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Kevin Talbot	director	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 406 BROADWAY, SUITE 369, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Lance Bradley	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Ben Lu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIRD RIDES, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Gregory Alan Wright	officer: Controller	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179
Yibo Ling	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIRD GLOBAL, INC., 392 NE 191ST STREET, #20388, MIAMI FL 33179