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Broadcom (Broadcom) Predictability Rank


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What is Broadcom Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Broadcom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Broadcom Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Broadcom's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Broadcom (Broadcom) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Broadcom Corp was incorporated in California in August 16, 1991. The Company is provider of semiconductors for wired and wireless communications. It provides a portfolio of SoCs that seamlessly deliver voice, video, data and multimedia connectivity in the home, office and mobile environments. Its business segments include Broadband and Connectivity; and Infrastructure and Networking. The solutions in Broadband and Connectivity segment include set-top box solutions, broadband modem solutions, connectivity solutions, and a range of other technologies. Customer products incorporating its solutions in Broadband and Connectivity segment include set-top boxes, or STBs, central office broadband access equipment, residential gateways, stand-alone broadband access modems, and a range of consumer devices, including smartphones and tablets, wearable devices, PCs, laptops, access points, and others. It offers complete platform solutions for cable, satellite, Internet Protocol, over-the-top and terrestrial STBs. Its solutions in Infrastructure and Networking segment include Ethernet switches and PHYs, which includes switches and fabrics; copper and optical transceivers; backplane and optical front-end physical layer devices; processors (including multicore processors); and other Infrastructure and Networking technologies (including knowledge-based processors, VoIP solutions, microwave backhaul solutions and radio head digital front ends). It also offers a family of Ethernet controllers. Customer products incorporating its solutions in Infrastructure and Networking segment include service provider metro equipment; edge and core routers, wireless infrastructure and wireless access points; switches and routers; servers and workstations; network interface cards; LAN on motherboard applications; optical networks and dense wave division multiplexing applications; security appliances; storage controllers; microwave links for wireless backhaul; cellular remote radio heads; automobile Ethernet networks; point-of-sale equipment; and other embedded SoC subsystems. Its customers shipping wired and/or wireless communications equipment and devices incorporating its products include Alcatel-Lucent, Apple, Arris, Cisco, Huawei Technologies, Humax, Pace, Samsung, Technicolor, ZTE. Its trademark includes Broadcom and BroadR-Reach. The Company's competitors include Intel Corporation, Marvell Technology Group Ltd., Mediatek Inc., Qualcomm Incorporation, and STMicroelectronics NV with respect to Broadband and Connectivity segment; and Cavium, Inc., Freescale Semiconductor,Ltd., Intel Corporation, Marvell Technology Group Ltd., and Mellanox with respect to Infrastructure and Networking segment. The Company's production is subject to environmental rules and regulations.
Executives
Nancy H Handel director 567 SAN NICOLAS DRIVE, SUITE 360, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Rajiv Ramaswami officer: Former EVP&GM, ING 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Robert J Finocchio director C/O ALTERA CORP 101 INNOVATION DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95134
John E Major director C/O LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC., 2140 LAKE PARK BOULEVARD, RICHARDSON TX 75080-2254
Michael E. Hurlston officer: Former EVP, Worldwide Sales 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Neil Y. Kim officer: Former EVP, Ops. & Central Eng MARVELL SEMICONDUCTOR, INC., 5488 MARVELL LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
William T Morrow director 77 BEALE STREET, 32ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Robert E Switz director 13625 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Maria Klawe director C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399
Eric Brandt officer: Former EVP & CFO C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Nancy R Phillips officer: Former EVP, Human Resources 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Eddy W Hartenstein director
Henry Samueli director, officer: Chairman of the Board and CTO 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617-3038
Scott A Mcgregor director, officer: Former President & CEO 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Robert A. Rango officer: EVP & GM, Mobile&Wireless Grp 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617

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