What is Blue Ridge Bankshares Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Blue Ridge Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Blue Ridge Bankshares (Blue Ridge Bankshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1807 Seminole Trail, Charlottesville, VA, USA, 22901
Blue Ridge Bankshares Inc is a United States-based company engaged in offering commercial and consumer banking and financial services through its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, Blue Ridge Bank, National Association, and its non-bank financial services affiliates. The bank offers services such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, cash management accounts, certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, commercial and industrial loans, residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, home equity loans, consumer installment loans, investment accounts, insurance, credit cards, online banking, telephone banking, and mobile banking. Its primary source of revenue is interest income from the lending activities.
Executives
| Brian K. Plum |
director, officer: CEO & President |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Robert S. Janney |
director |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Brett Raynor |
officer: Cheif Accounting Officer |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Lanell Deloach |
officer: Chief Credit Officer of Subsid |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Heather Cozart |
director |
500 RAMBLEWOOD DRIVE, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Otis Jones |
director |
9118 AVOCET CT, CHESTERFIELD VA 23838 |
| G William Beale |
officer: CEO of Bank Subsidiary |
1051 E. CARY STREET, SUITE 1200, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| Vance H Spilman |
director |
5417 CARY STREET ROAD, RICHMOND VA 23226 |
| Andrew C. Holzwarth |
director |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| William W. Stokes |
director |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Larry Dees |
director |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Mensel D Dean |
director |
4095 VALLEY PIKE, WINCHESTER VA 22602 |
| Carolyn J. Woodruff |
director |
17 WEST MAIN STREET, LURAY VA 22835 |
| Reynolds Randolph N Jr |
director |
3 PARTRIDGE HILL ROAD, RICHMOND VA 23238 |
| Farmar Richard A Iii |
director |
P O BOX 1181, WARSAW VA 22572 |
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