Blue Bird (Blue Bird) Predictability Rank

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What is Blue Bird Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Bird Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blue Bird (Blue Bird) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Blue Bird Corp (NAS:BLBD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4RB:Germany

Address

3920 Arkwright Road, 2nd Floor, Macon, GA, USA, 31210

Website

https://www.blue-bird.com

Blue Bird Corp is an American bus manufacturing company. It has its operations in two segments. The Bus segment involves the design, engineering, manufacture and sales of school buses and extended warranties; and the Parts segment which includes the sales of replacement bus parts. It carries its operations in the United States, Canada, and the rest of the world. The majority of its sales are derived from the United States through its bus manufacturing business.

Executives

Phil Horlock	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O LOJACK CORPORATION, 40 PEQUOT WAY, CANTON MA 02021
Asp Bb Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	299 PARK AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Razvan Radulescu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3920 ARKWRIGHT ROAD, SUITE 200, MACON GA 31210
Julie A Fream	director	3920 ARKWRIGHT RD #200, MACON GA 31210
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Britton Smith	officer: President	3920 ARKWRIGHT RD, SUITE 200, MACON GA 31210
Mark Blaufuss	director	C/O BLUE BIRD CORPORATION, 3920 ARKWRIGHT ROAD, SUITE 200, MACON GA 31210
Simon J Newman	director	3920 ARKWRIGHT RD # 200, MACON GA 31210
Ted Scartz	officer: SVP General Counsel	3920 ARKWRIGHT RD #200, MACON GA 31210
Matthew Stevenson	officer: President	150 PEABODY PLACE, M.S. LEGL-0008, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Paul Yousif	officer: See Remarks	C/O BLUE BIRD CORPORATION, 402 BLUE BIRD BOULEVARD, FORT VALLEY GA 31030
Jared Sperling	director	C/O AMERICAN SECURITIES LLC, 299 PARK AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Mark Ashburn Terry	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	402 BLUE BIRD BLVD, FORT VALLEY GA 31030
Jeffery L Taylor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Jenkins Charles R Iii	officer: Chief Operating Officer	217 SANSBURY TRAIL, WARNER ROBINS GA 31088