BILL Holdings (BILL Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is BILL Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BILL Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BILL Holdings (BILL Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » BILL Holdings Inc (NYSE:BILL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0M5:Germany 0M5:Germany B2HI34:Brazil

Address

6220 America Center Drive, Suite 100, San Jose, CA, USA, 95022

Website

https://www.bill.com

BILL Holdings Inc is a provider of software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments and spend and expense management products, which allow users to automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions, enable businesses to easily connect with their suppliers or customers to do business, eliminate expense reports, manage cash flows and improve back office efficiency. Initial Public Offering and Follow-on Offering.

Executives

Rajesh A. Aji	officer: General Counsel & CCO	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Loren Padelford	officer: CCO	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Germaine Cota	officer: SVP, Finance & Accounting	675 CREEKSIDE DRIVE, CAMPBELL CA 95008
John R. Rettig	officer: CFO	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Rene A. Lacerte	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Scott Wagner	director	C/O WILSON SONSINI GOODRICH AND ROSATI, 650 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
David Hornik	director, 10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Alison Wagonfeld	director	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Brian Jacobs	director
Steven Cakebread	director	YEXT, INC., ONE MADISON AVE., FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Bora Chung	officer: SVP of Products	C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1810 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Blake Thomas Murray	officer: CEO, DivvyPay, LLC	C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Tina Reich	director	C/O BILL HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 AMERICA CENTER DR., SUITE 100, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Aida Alvarez	director	5995 PLAZA DRIVE MAIL ST CY20-103, CYPRESS CA 90630
Allison Mnookin	director	C/O INTUIT, 150 CAMBRIDGE PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140