bebe stores (bebe stores) Predictability Rank

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What is bebe stores Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

bebe stores Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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bebe stores (bebe stores) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » bebe stores Inc (OTCPK:BEBE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

552 Wisconsin Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.bebe.com

bebe stores Inc was a women's apparel company that designs, develops, and produces a distinctive line of contemporary women's apparel and accessories. It also owns and operates, through subsidiaries, rent-to-own Buddy's Home Furnishings franchise stores located in states in the southeastern U.S., offering furniture, appliances, and electronics to consumers through rent-to-own agreements, along with other investments.

Executives

Kenneth M Young	director	C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD., SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Manny Mashouf	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and Founder, other: Chairman and Founder	400 VALLEY DRIVE, BRISBANE CA 94005
B. Riley Financial, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Nicholas John Capuano	director	C/O B RILEY FINANCIAL, 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE.800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Joseph Scirocco	officer: Managing Director, PAO, PFO	QUIKSILVER, INC, 15202 GRAHAM STREET, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92649
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Walter J Parks	officer: PRESIDENT COO INTERIM CFO
James F. Wiggett	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	BEBE STORES, INC., 10345 WEST OLYMPIC BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Robert Galvin	director	78 GOLF LANE, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877
Blair W Lambert	director	C/O THE GYMBOREE CORPORATION, 500 HOWARD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Brett Brewer	director
Seth R Johnson	director
Darren Horvath	officer: CONTROLLER/ PAO	C/O BEBE STORES, INC., 400 VALLEY DRIVE, BRISBANE CA 94005
Narender Singh	director	400 VALLEY DRIVE, BRISBANE CA 94005
Steve Birkhold	officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	400 VALLEY DRIVE, BRISBANE CA 94005