Black Diamond Therapeutics (Black Diamond Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Black Diamond Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Black Diamond Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Black Diamond Therapeutics (Black Diamond Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (NAS:BDTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Main Street, 14th Floor, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.blackdiamondtherapeutics.com

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is a precision oncology medicine company. It is engaged in the discovery and development of small molecule, tumor-agnostic therapies. The company has one pipeline technology platform, namely Mutation-Allostery-Pharmacology, which is targeting mutations in cancer. Its drugs under the pipeline are BDTX-189 and BDTX-1535.

Executives

Biotech Growth N V	10 percent owner	ARA HILL TOP BUILDING, UNIT A-5, PLETTERIJWEG OOST 1, CURACAO, WILLEMSTAD P8 000000
Ra Capital Nexus Fund, L.p.	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ali Behbahani	director, 10 percent owner	5425 WISCONSIN AVE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Peter Kolchinsky	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
David M. Epstein	director, officer: See Remarks	OSI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 41 PINELAWN ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Sergey Yurasov	officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	C/O IMMUNE DESIGN CORP., 1616 EASTLAKE AVE. E., SUITE 310, SEATTLE WA 98102
Elizabeth Buck	officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER	C/O BLACK DIAMOND THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE MAIN STREET, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Erika Jones	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O BLACK DIAMOND THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE MAIN STREET, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Fang Ni	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O BLACK DIAMOND THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE MAIN STREET, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Biotech Ag Bb	10 percent owner	SCHWERTSTRASSE 6, SCHAFFHAUSEN V8 8200
Wendy L Dixon	director
Mark A. Velleca	director	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Brent Hatzis-schoch	officer: See Remarks	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 950 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451