Biodesix (Biodesix) Predictability Rank

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What is Biodesix Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Biodesix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Biodesix (Biodesix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Biodesix Inc (NAS:BDSX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2970 Wilderness Place, Suite 100, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301

Website

https://www.biodesix.com

Biodesix Inc is a data-driven diagnostic solutions company. Its artificial intelligence-based platform helps to discover, develop, and commercialize solutions for clinical unmet needs, with a focus on lung disease. It provides biopharmaceutical companies with services that include diagnostic research, clinical trial testing, and the discovery, development, and commercialization of companion diagnostics. The revenue is derived from two sources, providing diagnostic testing services associated with blood-based lung and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) tests; and providing biopharmaceutical companies with services generally provided outside the clinical setting and governed by individual contracts with third parties as well as development and commercialization of companion diagnostics.

Executives

Scott Hutton	director, officer: President & CEO	9965 FEDERAL DRIVE, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80921
Kieran O'kane	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	2970 WILDERNESS PLACE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Gary Anthony Pestano	officer: Chief Development Officer	2970 WILDERNESS PLACE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Robin Harper Cowie	officer: CFO, Sec'y & Treasurer	2970 WILDERNESS PLACE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Chris Vazquez	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2970 WILDERNESS PLACE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Jack W Schuler	director, 10 percent owner	100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Jon Faiz Kayyem	director	5964 LA PLACE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Kennedy Lawrence T. Jr	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WESTWOOD MANAGEMENT, 1700 MADISON ROAD, SUITE 200, CINCINNATI OH 45206
Ryan H Siurek	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6200 SPRINT PARKWAY, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251
John Patience	director, 10 percent owner, other: Chairman	28161 N. KEITH DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Matthew Strobeck	director	C/O METABOLIX, INC., 21 ERIE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Charles M Watts	director	3950 SOUTH COUNTRY CLUB, SUITE 470, TUCSON AZ 85714
Hany Massarany	director	1910 INNOVATION PARK DR, TUCSON AZ 85737
Georgantas Robert William Iii	director, officer: SVP, Rsrch & Trans'l Science	2970 WILDERNESS PLACE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Jean M. Franchi	director	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139