Brandywine Realty Trust (Brandywine Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Brandywine Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Brandywine Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Brandywine Realty Trust (Brandywine Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE:BDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

B2X:Germany

Address

2929 Arch Street, Suite 1800, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19104

Website

https://www.brandywinerealty.com

Brandywine Realty Trust engaged in the acquisition, development, redevelopment, ownership, management, and operation of a portfolio of office, life science/lab, residential, and mixed-use properties. The company owned and managed properties within five segments. The Philadelphia CBD segment includes properties located in the City of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania Suburbs segment includes properties in Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties in the Philadelphia suburbs. The Austin, Texas segment includes properties in the City of Austin, Texas. The Metropolitan Washington, D.C. segment includes properties in Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and Southern Maryland. The Other segment includes properties in Camden County, New Jersey and New Castle County, Delaware.

Executives

Joan Lau	director	C/O RENOVACOR, INC., 5 MEAD POINT DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Michael Joyce	director	401 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Tom Wirth	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O SL GREEN REALTY CORP, 420 LEXINGTON SUITE 1900, NEW YORK NY 10170
William D Redd	officer: Executive Vice President	555 EAST LANCASTER AVE, SUITE 100, RADNOR PA 19087
H Jeffrey Devuono	officer: Executive Vice President	401 PLYMOUTH RD, STE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Reginald Desroches	director	C/O BRANDYWINE REALTY TRUST, 2929 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1700, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Wyche Fowler	director	401 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Shawn Neuman	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
Gerard H Sweeney	director, officer: President and CEO	200 BERWYN PARK, STE 100, BERWYN PA 19312
Daniel A Palazzo	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	555 EAST LANCASTER AVE., SUITE 100, RADNOR PA 19087
Nichols Anthony A Sr	director
James C Diggs	director	1000 SIX PPG PL, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Terri A Herubin	director	2929 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1700, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Haverstick H Richard Jr	director	26 WRENTHAM DRIVE, MEDFORD NJ 08055
Rice Jennifer Matthews	officer: VP of Legal Affairs	555 EAST LANCASTER AVE, SUITE 100, RADNOR PA 19087