Bicycle Therapeutics (Bicycle Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Bicycle Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bicycle Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bicycle Therapeutics (Bicycle Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Bicycle Therapeutics PLC (NAS:BCYC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

50BA:Germany

Address

Granta Park, Great Abington, Blocks A and B, Portway Building, Cambridge, GBR, CB21 6GS

Website

https://www.bicycletherapeutics.com

Bicycle Therapeutics PLC is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a novel class of medicines which are referred to as Bicycles. The Bicycles are synthetic short peptides constrained to form two loops which stabilize their structural geometry. Its initial internal programs are focused on oncology indications with high unmet medical need. The company's product candidate, BT1718, is a Bicycle Toxin Conjugate, or BTC.

Executives

Nigel Crockett	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC, B900, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Travis Alvin Thompson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC, BLOCKS A & B, PORTWAY BUILDING, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB21 6GS
Alistair Milnes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC, B900, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Kevin Lee	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED, B900 BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB223AT
Nicholas Keen	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O BICYCLE THEAPEUTICS LIMITED, B900 BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Michael Skynner	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED, B900 BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB223AT
Alethia Young	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GRAPHITE BIO, INC., 201 HASKINS WAY, SUITE 210, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lee Kalowski	officer: President and CFO	C/O TOKAI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Santiago Arroyo	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Dominic Smethurst	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC, B900, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Pierre Legault	director	P.O. BOX 1028, C/O STONE MANAGEMENT LLC, BERWYNE PA 19312
Kate Bingham	director	1365 MAIN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jose-carlos Gutierrez-ramos	director	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Plc Glaxosmithkline	director, 10 percent owner	980 GREAT WEST ROAD, BRENTFORD MIDDLESEX X0 TW8 9GS
Veronica Gh Jordan	director	C/O ALBANY MOLECULAR RESEARCH, INC., 26 CORPORATE CIRCLE, ALBANY NY 12212-5098