BlackBerry (BlackBerry) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1999. Start your Free Trial

What is BlackBerry Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BlackBerry Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BlackBerry Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of BlackBerry's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

BlackBerry (BlackBerry) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE:BB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BB:Mexico RI1:Germany RI1:Germany RI1:Germany BB:Canada BBRY:Argentina

Address

2200 University Avenue East, Waterloo, ON, CAN, N2K 0A7

Website

https://www.blackberry.com

BlackBerry, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. The firm provides endpoint management and protection to enterprises, specializing in regulated industries like government, as well as embedded software to the automotive, medical, and industrial markets.

Executives

Marjorie Dickman	officer: Chief Gv Aff & Pub Pol Officer	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
John Joseph Giamatteo	officer: President of Cyber Security
Mattias Eriksson	officer: President of IoT	C/O 2200 UNIVERSITY AVE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K OA7
Steve Rai	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
Philip S. Kurtz	officer: CLO & Corp. Secretary	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
Nita C White-ivy	officer: EVP, Human Resources	5000 HACIENDA DR, DUBLIN CA 94568
John S Chen	director, officer: Executive Chairman & CEO	C/O SYBASE INC, 5000 HACIENDA DR, DUBLIN CA 92563
Mark George Wilson	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
Billy Ho	officer: EVP, Ent. Products & VAS	5000 HACIENDA DR, DUBLIN CA 94568
Randall Cook	officer: CLO & Corp. Secretary	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 3001 BISHOP DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN RAMON CA 10017
Thomas Eacobacci	officer: President, BlackBerry	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO Z4 A6 N2K 0A7
Steven M Capelli	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	3993 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 780, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
David Castignola	officer: Head of Spark Field Ops & Mktg	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
Barbara Stymiest	director	C/O BLACKBERRY LIMITED, 2200 UNIVERSITY AVENUE EAST, WATERLOO A6 N2K 0A7
Second 1109 Holdco Ltd.	director, 10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON ST W STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7