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Books-A-Million (Books-A-Million) Predictability Rank


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What is Books-A-Million Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Books-A-Million Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Books-A-Million Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Books-A-Million's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Books-A-Million (Books-A-Million) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Books-A-Million Inc was founded in 1917, originally incorporated under the laws of the State of Alabama in 1964 and reincorporated in Delaware in September 1992. The Company is a book retailer located in the eastern United States and operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The Company operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The first Superstore was opened in 1987 and operates under the names Books-A-Million and Books and Co. and 2nd & Charles. Traditional bookstores are smaller stores operated under the names Bookland, Books-A-Million and BAM. All store formats generally offer a selection of sellers and other hardcover and paperback books, magazines, toys, games, electronics and gifts. In addition to these retail store formats, it offers its products over the internet at Booksamillion.com. Its retail operations also include the operation of Yogurt Mountain Holding, LLC, a retailer and franchisor of self-serve frozen yogurt stores. It also develops and manages commercial real estate investments through its subsidiary, Preferred Growth Properties, LLC. The Company operates in three reportable operating segments: Retail trade; Electronic commerce trade; and Real estate development and management. In the retail trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books, magazines and general merchandise, including gifts, cards, games, toys, collectibles, music, DVDs, electronic devices and accessories in its retail stores. In the electronic commerce trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books and general merchandise over the internet. The real estate development and management segment is managed separately from the retail trade and electronic commerce trade segments, with a focus on deriving revenues through developing and leasing commercial retail real estate for purposes of earning rental income. The Company promotes its bookstores through the use of traditional direct mail, e-mail and online advertising, as well as point-of-sale materials posted and distributed in its stores. The retail book business is competitive. The Company faces direct competition from other superstores, such as Barnes & Noble, and it also faces competition from mass merchandisers, such as Wal-Mart and Costco, and online retailers, such as Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble and Wal-Mart. Its bookstores also compete with specialty retail stores that offer books in particular subject areas, independent single store operators, variety discounters, drugstores, warehouse clubs, mail order clubs and other retailers offering books. In addition, its bookstores face additional competition from the market for electronic books and may face competition from other categories of retailers entering the retail book market. The Company is subject to general business regulations and laws, as well as regulations and laws specifically governing the Internet and e-commerce.
Executives
Joel R Anderson other: See Remarks Below 202 NORTH COURT STREET, FLORENCE AL 35630
Ronald James Domanico director 3100 JOE JERKINS BLVD, AUSTELL GA 30106
Terrance G Finley officer: CEO & President, other: See Remarks Below 402 INDUSTRIAL LANE, C/O BOOKS A MILLION, BIRMINGHAM AL 35211
Clyde B Anderson director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman, other: See Remarks Below BOOKS A MILLION INC, 402INDUSTRIAL LANE, BIRMING AL 35211
Albert C Johnson director 3172 CROSSINGS DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Rogers William H Jr director 214 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Sandra B Cochran director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO, other: SEE REMARKS BELOW 305 HARTMANN DRIVE, LEBANON TN 37087

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