What is Alteryx Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Alteryx Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Alteryx (Alteryx) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
17200 Laguna Canyon Road, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618
Alteryx Inc is a software company that provides self-service data analytics software. Alteryx delivers easy end-to-end automation of data engineering, analytics, reporting, machine learning, and data science processes, enabling enterprises everywhere to democratize data analytics across their organizations for a broad range of use cases. The company generates its revenue from the sale of a subscription-based software platform.
Executives
| Chris Natali |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
3345 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Eileen Schloss |
director |
C/O MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS, INC., 79 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Paula Hansen |
officer: President and CRO |
QUALTRICS INTERNATIONAL INC., 333 WEST RIVER PARK DRIVE, PROVO UT 84604 |
| Suresh Vittal |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
3345 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Dean Stoecker |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO |
C/O ALTERYX, INC., 3345 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Alteryx, Inc. |
director, 10 percent owner |
17200 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Timothy I Maudlin |
director |
18739 VOGEL FARM TRAIL, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Daniel J Warmenhoven |
director |
495 EAST JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Cecelia Morken |
director |
26025 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Christopher M Lal |
officer: SVP, GC & Corp. Secretary |
903 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 100, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673 |
| Jeff Horing |
director |
INSIGHT PARTNERS, 680 5TH AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Anjali Joshi |
director |
|
| Kevin Rubin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Scott Davidson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
5470 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054 |
| Derek Knudsen |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
C/O ALTERYX, INC., 3345 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92612 |
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