What is Accelerate Diagnostics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Accelerate Diagnostics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Accelerate Diagnostics (Accelerate Diagnostics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3950 South Country Club Road, Suite 470, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85714
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc is an in vitro diagnostics company that specializes in rapid diagnostics for infectious pathogens. The firm's core platform, the Accelerate ID/AST System, determines whether live bacterial or fungal cells in a patient sample are susceptible to a particular antibiotic. This test is performed on pathogens that are commonly associated with serious infections and can deliver results more quickly than traditional methods, such as bacterial culturing. The system can analyze a positive blood culture sample in approximately five hours, which is faster than traditional testing techniques. The company earns majority of its revenue from domestic market.
Executives
| David Patience |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ACCELERATE DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 3950 S. COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, SUITE 240, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Jack Phillips |
director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO |
11731 YALE DR, CARMEL IN 46032 |
| Larry Michael Mertz |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
3950 S. COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Marran H. Ogilvie |
director |
599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jennifer Regan |
director |
C/O ACCELERATE DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 3950 S. COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, SUITE 470, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Mark S. Black |
director |
3950 S. COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, SUITE 470, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Steven Reichling |
officer: CFO |
7000 NORTH BROADWAY, BUILDING 3-307, DENVER CO 80221 |
| Ron Price |
officer: SVP & HEAD OF COM OPS AMERICAS |
3950 SOUTH COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, SUITE 470, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Wayne Burris |
director |
3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056 |
| Hany Massarany |
director |
1910 INNOVATION PARK DR, TUCSON AZ 85737 |
| Jack W Schuler |
director, 10 percent owner |
100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Mark C Miller |
director |
C/O STERICYCLE INC., 28161 N KEITH DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Ten Brink Frank Jm |
director |
C/O STERICYCLE INC, 28161 N KEITH DR, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Charles M Watts |
director |
3950 SOUTH COUNTRY CLUB, SUITE 470, TUCSON AZ 85714 |
| Louise Francesconi |
director |
870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
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