What is American Virtual Cloud Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
American Virtual Cloud Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
American Virtual Cloud Technologies (American Virtual Cloud Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1720 Peachtree Street, Suite 629, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309
American Virtual Cloud Technologies Inc is engaged in the business of providing IT solutions. The company, along with its subsidiaries, offers various services like private & hybrid data centers, enterprise networking solutions, unified cloud communications, managed services, cybersecurity, and enhanced connectivity. It caters its services to different sectors such as Energy, Finance, Healthcare, Manufacturing & logistics, Public sector, Retail and hospitality, Technology service providers, and Others. It has two segments Computex and Kandy. Geographically, it generates the majority of its revenue from the domestic market.
Executives
| Charles E. Sweet |
director |
1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Ribbon Communications Inc. |
10 percent owner |
6500 CHASE OAKS BOULEVARD, PLANO TX 75023 |
| Adrian Foltz |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Onex Evans |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Michael Tessler |
director |
C/O BROADSOFT, INC., 220 PERRY PARKWAY, GAITHERSBURG MD 20877 |
| Mock Lawrence E, Jr. |
director |
ONE BUCKHEAD PLAZA, 3060 PEACHTREE RD, SUITE 780, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Dennis P Lockhart |
director |
100 GOLF ROAD, GOLF IL 60029 |
| Pensare Sponsor Group, Llc |
10 percent owner |
1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Spac Opportunity Fund I, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2870 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 509, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Navigation Capital Partners, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
2870 PEACHTREE RD. NW, UNIT 509, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Navigation Capital Partners Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2870 PEACHTREE RD. NW, UNIT 509, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Stratos Management Systems Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
2870 PEACHTREE RD. NW, UNIT 509, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Kevin Keough |
officer: President |
1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Robert E. Willis |
director |
C/O PENSARE SPONSOR GROUP, LLC, 1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Spac Opportunity Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
2870 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 509, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
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