Auddia (Auddia) Predictability Rank

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What is Auddia Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Auddia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Auddia (Auddia) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Auddia Inc (NAS:AUUD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2100 Central Avenue, Suite 200, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301

Website

https://www.auddiainc.com

Auddia Inc is a technology company that is engaged in radio broadcasts and streaming audio content digitally. Its products include Auddia App which is a subscription-based commercial-free AM/FM software application, and0 Vodacast is an interactive podcasting platform and application. The company generates revenue through subscription fees from customers accessing the company's cloud-based computing services and advertisement services.

Executives

Timothy Jerald Ackerman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2100 CENTRAL AVE, SUITE 200, BOULDER CO 80301
Jeffrey John Thramann	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	8580 STRAWBERRY LANE, NIWOT CO 80503
Brain Joseph Hoff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5755 CENTRAL AVE., SUITE C, BOULDER CO 80301
Thomas Carl Birch	director	7120 TRENTON RIDGE CT., RALEIGH NC 27613
Stephen Deitsch	director	1600 BROADWAY, SUITE 700, DENVER CO 80202
Richard W Liebman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5755 CENTRAL AVE, SUITE C, BOULDER CO 80301
Michael Thomas Lawless	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	4383 SCARSDALE PLACE, BOULDER CO 80301
Timothy J. Hanlon	director	1040 BRECKENRIDGE AVE., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Peter Shoebridge	officer: Chief Technology Officer	5755 CENTRAL AVE, SUITE C, BOULDER CO 80301
Richard Michael Minicozzi	10 percent owner	6008 HOOD HOLLOW, AUSTIN TX 78731