AltiGen Communications (AltiGen Communications) Predictability Rank

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What is AltiGen Communications Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AltiGen Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AltiGen Communications (AltiGen Communications) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » AltiGen Communications Inc (OTCPK:ATGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

670 N McCarthy Boulevard, Suite 200, Milpitas, CA, USA, 95035

Website

https://www.altigen.com

AltiGen Communications Inc is a provider of cloud-based Internet Protocol-private branch exchange (IP-PBX) and Contact Center solutions. The company designs, delivers, and supports Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) phone systems and call center solutions. Its Unified Communications solutions are designed with an open architecture and its integrated Internet protocol (IP) applications suite provides customers with a business communications solution. It derives a majority of its revenue from the Hosted services.

Executives

Jeremiah Fleming	officer: President & COO	4555 CUSHING PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Gilbert Hu	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Wanger Long Term Opportunity Fund Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	401 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 1301, CHICAGO IL 60611
Alan B Howe	director	1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081
Alan Bradley Howe	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Wltof Gp Llc	10 percent owner	401 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 1301, CHICAGO IL 60611
Philip M Mcdermott	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Wanger Investment Mangagement, Llc	director	401 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 1301, CHICAGO IL 60611
Eric Wanger	director	401 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 1301, CHICAGO IL 60611
Michael E Plumer	officer: VP of Sales	213 RYDER STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Tsai Mike Mon Yen	director	28620 MATADERO CREEK COURT, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Tacheng Wang	director	27101 HORSESHOE LANE, LOS ALTOS HILLS CA 94022
Kenneth Tai	director	C/O ALTIGEN COMMUNICATIONS INC, 47429 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538
Sun Shirley Tsyr Yi	officer: VP of Research & Development