What is Atlantic Power Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Atlantic Power Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Atlantic Power (Atlantic Power) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3 Allied Drive, Suite 155, Dedham, MA, USA, 02026
Atlantic Power Corp is an independent power producer that owns power generation assets in the United States and Canada. Its power generation projects, which are diversified by geography, fuel type, dispatch profile, and offtaker, sell electricity to utilities and other large customers predominantly under long-term power purchase agreements, which seek to minimize exposure to changes in commodity prices. It has four reportable segments: Solid Fuel, Natural Gas, Hydroelectric and Corporate. A vast majority of the revenues are generated from the natural gas segment.
Executives
| Kevin Howell |
director |
2220 MONUMENT AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23220 |
| R Foster Duncan |
director |
139 E FOURTH ST, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Gilbert Samuel Palter |
director |
37 MISTY CRESCENT TORONTO A6 MSB IT2 |
| Danielle S Mottor |
director |
870 WASHINGTON STREET HOLLISTON MA 01746 |
| Terrence Ronan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
ONE FEDERAL STREET 30TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Joseph Cofelice |
officer: EVP Commercial Development |
|
| Moore James J Jr |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
|
| Jeffrey S Levy |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
769 WEBSTER STREET NEEDHAM MA 02492 |
| Irving Russell Gerstein |
director |
200 CLARENDON STREET BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Philip Daniel Rorabaugh |
officer: SVP, Asset Management |
27 ASPEN AVE AUBURNDALE MA 02466 |
| Holli C. Ladhani |
director |
2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 4500, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Teresa Ressel |
director |
ON SEMICONDUCTOR C/O V. PECORA (MD A700), 5005 EAST MCDOWELL ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85008 |
| John Alexander Mcneil |
director |
200 CLARENDON STREET BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Kenneth Michael Hartwick |
director |
200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Paul Howard Rapisarda |
officer: EVP Commercial |
151 SE 15TH ROAD, APT 1802, MIAMI FL 33129 |
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