What is AST SpaceMobile Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AST SpaceMobile Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
AST SpaceMobile (AST SpaceMobile) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2901 Enterprise Lane, Midland Intl. Air & Space Port, Midland, TX, USA, 79706
AST SpaceMobile Inc is a satellite designer and manufacturer. The company is building a cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices, and off-the-shelf mobile phones based on extensive IP and patent portfolio. It has focused on eliminating the connectivity gaps faced by mobile subscribers and finally bringing broadband to the billions who remain unconnected.
Executives
| Adriana Cisneros |
director |
700 NW 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 1700, MIAMI FL 33136 |
| Sean R. Wallace |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037 |
| Shanti B. Gupta |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
AST SCIENCE MIDLAND INTL AIR&SPACE PORT, 2901 ENTERPRISE LANE, MIDLAND TX 79706 |
| Atc Trs Ii Llc |
other: Member of 10% owner group |
116 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| American Tower Corp /ma/ |
other: Member of 10% owner group |
116 HUNTINGTON AVE, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Invesat Llc |
10 percent owner |
700 NW 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 1700, MIAMI FL 33136 |
| Richard Sarnoff |
director |
C/O AUDIBLE INC, 65 WILLOWBROOK BLVD, WAYNE NJ 07470 |
| Vodafone Ventures Ltd |
10 percent owner |
VODAFONE HOUSE, THE CONNECTION, NEWBURY X0 RG14 2FN |
| Brian Heller |
officer: EVP, GC & Secretary |
C/O AST SPACEMOBILE 2901 ENTERPRISE LANE, MIDLAND INTL. AIR & SPACE PORT, MIDLAND TX 79706 |
| Tareq Amin |
director |
C/O AST SPACEMOBILE 2901 ENTERPRISE LANE, MIDLAND INTL. AIR & SPACE PORT, MIDLAND TX 79706 |
| Luke Ibbetson |
director |
C/O AST SPACEMOBILE 2901 ENTERPRISE LANE, MIDLAND INTL. AIR & SPACE PORT, MIDLAND TX 79706 |
| Ronald L Rubin |
director |
601 CLEARWATER PARK RD, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401 |
| Gustavo A Cisneros |
10 percent owner |
FINSER CORP, 550 BILTMORE WAY, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co |
10 percent owner |
VODAFONE HOUSE, THE CONNECTION, NEWBURY, BERKSHIRE X0 RG14 2FN |
| Hiroshi Mikitani |
director |
C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 5000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
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