Astrana Health (Astrana Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Astrana Health Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Astrana Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Astrana Health (Astrana Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Astrana Health Inc (NAS:ASTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3AM:Germany

Address

1668 S. Garfield Avenue, 2nd Floor, Alhambra, CA, USA, 91801

Website

https://www.apollomed.net

Apollo Medical Holdings Inc is a patient-centered, physician-centric integrated population health management company. The company is working to provide coordinated, outcomes-based medical care in a cost-effective manner. It is focused on physicians providing high-quality medical care, population health management and care coordination for patients, particularly senior patients and patients with multiple chronic conditions. Its operating segment is the healthcare delivery segment.

Executives

Chandan Basho	officer: See Remarks	1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
John Vong	officer: SVP-Chief Accounting Officer	4288 BIRCHWOOD AVENUE, SEAL BEACH CA 90740
Linda Marsh	director	100 N. STONEMAN AVE., ROOM 200, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Allied Physicians Of California, A Profession Medical Corp	10 percent owner	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Weili Dai,	director	1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
J. Lorraine Estradas	director	1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
David Schmidt	director	700 N. BRAND BLVD, SUITE 220, GLENDALE CA 91203
Albert Waichow Young	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Adrian Vazquez	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O 1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Thomas S. Lam	director, officer: President and Co-CEO	1668 GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Kenneth T. Sim	director, officer: Executive Chairman and Co-CEO	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Brandon Sim	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O APOLLO MEDICAL HOLDINGS, INC., 1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Eric Chin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Michael F. Eng	director	712 BATAAN PLACE, MONTEREY PARK CA 91755
Hing Ang	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801