Aquestive Therapeutics (Aquestive Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Aquestive Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aquestive Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aquestive Therapeutics (Aquestive Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Aquestive Therapeutics Inc (NAS:AQST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

30 Technology Drive, Warren, NJ, USA, 07059

Website

https://www.aquestive.com

Aquestive Therapeutics Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing differentiated products to meet medical needs. Its later-stage product pipeline focuses on the treatment of diseases of the Central Nervous System (CNS), and an earlier-stage pipeline for the treatment of severe allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Its commercial product portfolio includes Sympazan Oral Film, Suboxone Sublingual Film, Exservan Oral Film, and Zuplenz. The product pipeline includes Libervant Buccal Film, AQST-108, and AQST-305. The majority of its revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

Carl N Kraus	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACERAGEN, INC., 15 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27709
Stephen Wargacki	officer: SVP, Research & Development	C/O AQUESTIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Cassie Jung	officer: SVP, Operations	C/O AQUESTIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Kenneth Truitt	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AQUESTIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Timothy E Morris	director	ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Peter E. Boyd	officer: SVP-Operations/Value Delivery	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Lori J Braender	officer: SVP, General Counsel	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Daniel Barber	officer: SVP-Chief Strategy/Dev Officer	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Alexander Mark Schobel	director, officer: Chief Innovation/Tech Officer	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Julie Krop	director	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Marco Taglietti	director	C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Toth A Ernest Jr	officer: Interim CFO
John T. Maxwell	officer: SVP-Chief Financial Officer	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Keith J Kendall	director, officer: President and CEO	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
James S Scibetta	director	C/O BIOENVISION, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, 41ST. FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154