What is Digital Turbine Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Digital Turbine Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Digital Turbine (Digital Turbine) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
110 San Antonio Street, Suite 160, Austin, TX, USA, 78701
Digital Turbine Inc is an independent mobile growth platform. It offers end-to-end products and solutions to all participants in the mobile application ecosystem, enabling brand discovery and advertising, user acquisition and engagement, and operational efficiency for advertisers. Its operating segments are On Device Media (ODM); In App Media-AdColony; and In App Media-Fyber. The company derives key revenue from the ODM segment by providing solutions to all participants in the mobile application ecosystem who want to connect with end users and consumers who hold the device, including mobile carriers and device original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that participate in the app economy, app publishers and developers, and brands and advertising agencies. It has a global business presence.
Executives
| Jeff Karish |
director |
C/O FIRST PACTRUST BANCORP INC, 610 BAY BOULEVARD, CHULA VISTA CA 91910 |
| Robert M Deutschman |
director |
|
| Mohan S Gyani |
director |
7277 164TH AVE NE, BLDG1, REDMOND WA 98052 |
| Stone William Gordon Iii |
officer: President, COO |
2811 CAHUENGA BOULEVARD WEST, LOS ANGELES CA 90068 |
| Holyce Hess Groos |
director |
58 CHRISTIANA COURT, LAKE GEORGE NY 12845 |
| Roy H Chestnutt |
director |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Senthilkumaran Kanagaratnam |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
5717 LA SEYNE PLACE, SAN JOSE CA 95138 |
| Matthew Gillis |
officer: President |
2400 BOSTON STREET, SUITE 201, BALTIMORE MD 21224 |
| Michelle M Sterling |
director |
5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Mary Spilman |
director |
C/O CRITEO LEGAL DEPT., 387 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Michael Benjamin Miller |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
360 WEST FOREST GROVE ROAD, LUCAS TX 75002 |
| David Wesch |
officer: Acting CAO |
1300 GUADALUPE STREET, SUITE 302, AUSTIN TX 78701 |
| Christopher Thomas Rogers |
director |
2001 EDMUND HALLEY DRIVE, RESTON VA 20191 |
| Christine Collins |
officer: CTO |
111 NUECES STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701 |
| Paul M Schaeffer |
director |
5200 ENCINO AVENUE, ENCINO CA 91316 |
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