Apellis Pharmaceuticals (Apellis Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Apellis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apellis Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (Apellis Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:APLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1JK:Germany

Address

100 Fifth Avenue, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.apellis.com

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It focused on the development of novel therapeutic compounds to treat disease through the inhibition of the complement system, which is an integral component of the immune system, at the level of C3 the central protein in the complement cascade.

Executives

Karen Lewis	officer: Chief People Officer	APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 5TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Mark Jeffrey Delong	officer: Senior Vice President	100 5TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
James George Chopas	officer: See Remarks	950 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Adam J. Townsend	officer: See Remarks	C/O APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
David O. Watson	officer: General Counsel	6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
Pascal Deschatelets	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
Jeffrey Eisele	officer: See Remarks	APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 5TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Nur Nicholson	officer: Chief Technical Officer	APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 5TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Timothy Eugene Sullivan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	800 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 3310, PRUDENTIAL TOWER C/O AJU IB INVESTMENT, BOSTON MA 02199
Cedric Francois	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
Caroline Baumal	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 5TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
A. Sinclair Dunlop	director	C/O APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
Lukas Scheibler	officer: See Remarks	C/O APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014
Alec Machiels	director	505 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Federico Grossi	officer: See Remarks	C/O APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 6400 WESTWIND WAY, SUITE A, CRESTWOOD KY 40014