Applied Digital (Applied Digital) Predictability Rank

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What is Applied Digital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Applied Digital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Applied Digital (Applied Digital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Applied Digital Corp (NAS:APLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3811 Turtle Creek Boulevard, Suite 2100, Dallas, TX, USA, 75219

Website

https://www.applieddigital.com

Applied Digital Corp designs, develops and operates next-generation datacenters across North America to provide digital infrastructure solutions to the rapidly growing high performance computing industry.

Executives

Virginia Moore	director	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN,INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Richard N Nottenburg	director	1303 EAST ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Michael Maniscalco	officer: Chief Technology Officer	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, DALLAS TX 75219
Wes Cummins	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman	4505 LORRAINE AVE, DALLAS TX 75205
David Rench	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN, INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Regina Ingel	officer: EVP - Operations	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN, INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Chuck Hastings	director	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN, INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Douglas S Miller	director	C/O TELENAV, INC., 4655 GREAT AMERICA PK, SUITE 300, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Jason Zhang	director	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN, INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Kelli Mcdonald	director	3811 TURTLE CREEK BOULEVARD, SUITE 2100, C/O APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN, INC., DALLAS TX 75219
Richard S Rosenfeld	officer: CFO	105 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, MONTCLAIR NJ 07042
James A Schwartz	director	28 COTTRELL STREET, MYSTIC CT 06355
Riley Investment Partners Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 810, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Riley Investment Management Llc	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 810, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Frank L Rees	director, officer: Executive Vice-President