Artivion (Artivion) Predictability Rank

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What is Artivion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Artivion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Artivion Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Artivion (Artivion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Artivion Inc (NYSE:AORT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CYL:Germany

Address

1655 Roberts Boulevard North West, Kennesaw, GA, USA, 30144

Website

https://www.artivion.com

Artivion Inc offers cardiac and vascular surgeons a suite of aortic-centric solutions. The company's products include Aortic Heart Valve, Mitral Heart Valve, Aortic Allograft, Pulmonary Human Heart Valve, Pulmonary Patch, and Surgical Adhesive among others.

Executives

Jean F Holloway	officer: VP, General Counsel	C/O ARTIVION INC, 1655 ROBERTS BLVD, KENNESAW GA 30144
John E Davis	officer: Senior VP, Global Sales	1655 ROBERTS BLVD., NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Amy Horton	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CRYOLIFE, INC., 1655 ROBERTS BLVD., NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Florian Tyrs	officer: VP, Global Operations	IM SOELLER 3, BALINGEN 2M 72336
Robert C Thomson	officer: VP Research & Development	33 HABERSHAM COVE DRIVE, NW, ATLANTA GA 30305
Matthew A Getz	officer: VP, Human Resources	1655 ROBERTS BLVD NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Dennis B Maier	officer: Vice President, Operations	1655 ROBERTS BLVD, NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Rochelle L. Maney	officer: VP, Quality	1655 ROBERTS BLVD, NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
James P Mackin	officer: President & CEO	ARTIVION, INC., 1655 ROBERTS BLVD, NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Marshall S. Stanton	officer: SVP, Clinical & MD Affair	1655 ROBERTS BLVD, NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Andrew M Green	officer: VP Regulatory	ARTIVION INC, 1655 ROBERTS BLVD, KENNESAW GA 30144
David Ashley Lee	officer: Executive VP, COO & CFO	C/O CRYOLIFE INC, 1655 ROBERTS BLVD NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Elizabeth A Hoff	director	2701 WESTHEIMER ROAD, UNIT 1-E, HOUSTON TX 77098
Anthony B. Semedo	director	3288 HARRISON GRADE ROAD, SEBASTOPOL CA 95472
Ronald D Mccall	director	C/O CRYOLIFE, INC., 1655 ROBERTS BOULEVARD, NW, KENNESAW GA 30144